The MiPlan IP Global Macro fund might be a multi-asset strategy, but it compares well against the global equity sector, said Tony Bell, who manages the fund from ThinkCell, a newly registered asset manager.
Bell has run the fund since its inception in 2013, initially while working at Vunani Fund Managers.
Global Macro, which has assets under management of R1.9bn, is the top performer in the Asisa multi-asset global flexible category over the five years ended 30 June, with a 15.1% annualized return, according to Morningstar. The category has 32 funds with a five-year track record.
The fund has also outperformed all 13 strategies in the Asisa multi-asset high equity category over five years, and all but five of the 54 Asisa global equity funds over the same period, at volatility below the category average and despite a benchmark that is 20% weighed to cash.
‘As a flexible fund, we have a benchmark of 80% global equities and 20% cash. We have reduced the equity allocation below 60% in the short term. Cash is an important risk management tool to diversify from equities, which are long duration in nature,’ Bell said.
Global Macro has produced strong performance over shorter periods. Over three years, it is fifth out of 44 funds in the flexible category, with a 12.2%-a-year return. Over 12 months, the fund is second in the category out of 62, with a 38.8% return.
The fund has added alpha through what Bell calls ‘expectation investing’ instead of traditional valuation investing.
‘Instead of trying to forecast earnings, we prefer to look at implied growth in the share price.
‘We believe markets are highly efficient and the share price incorporates the full package of information available on each listed counter,’ Bell said during a client presentation in Johannesburg.
Bell said 65% of the shares in the global macro-fund were in the top two quintiles of market performers (the best-performing 40% of shares on global markets).
‘Getting as many shares as possible in the two top quintiles is critical. On average, there was a return of -1% in the fourth quintile and -16% in the bottom quintile.’